gibson:teaching:spring-2015:math445:lab9
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gibson:teaching:spring-2015:math445:lab9 [2015/03/24 07:08] gibson [Monte Carlo simulation of the 2012 Presidential election] |
gibson:teaching:spring-2015:math445:lab9 [2016/03/24 07:00] (current) gibson [Background] |
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| In the 2012 elections Silver's projections received an enormous amount of attention, and quite a bit of criticism, too. Political pundits derided his work as meaningless number crunching and his 2008 results as lucky. But this time, Silver predicted the Presidential election correctly in all 50 states, and 31 of 33 Senate elections. | In the 2012 elections Silver's projections received an enormous amount of attention, and quite a bit of criticism, too. Political pundits derided his work as meaningless number crunching and his 2008 results as lucky. But this time, Silver predicted the Presidential election correctly in all 50 states, and 31 of 33 Senate elections. | ||
| + | Further reading on Nate Silver, fivethirtyeight.com, and the mathematics of election prediction: | ||
| + | |||
| + | * [[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight]] | ||
| + | * [[http://cosmiclog.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/30/14809227-political-forecasts-stir-up-a-storm?lite]], | ||
| + | * [[http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/01/1153661/-Nate-Silver-s-Math-Based-Math]] | ||
| + | * [[https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=nate%20silver%20controversy | google:"Nate Silver controversy" ]] | ||
| ==== This lab ==== | ==== This lab ==== | ||
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| random number between $-m$ and $m$. Again, run 1000 simulations of flipping these 100 | random number between $-m$ and $m$. Again, run 1000 simulations of flipping these 100 | ||
| coins, make a histogram and compute the mean, median, and standard deviation of the | coins, make a histogram and compute the mean, median, and standard deviation of the | ||
| - | number of heads. | + | number of heads. Here's a file for biased coins with margins of error: |
| + | [[gibson:teaching:spring-2015:math445:lab9:biasedcoins2.asc]] | ||
| ===== Monte Carlo simulation of the 2012 Presidential election ===== | ===== Monte Carlo simulation of the 2012 Presidential election ===== | ||
gibson/teaching/spring-2015/math445/lab9.1427206112.txt.gz · Last modified: 2015/03/24 07:08 by gibson
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